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2) Avoid prediction of remote payoffs though not necessarily ordinary ones.
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They insistently made a distinction between the "statisticians" (those who deal with the subject itself and design the tools and methods) and those in other fields who pick up statistical tools from textbooks without really understanding them.

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It is thus evident that while the forecasters might be just "empty suits the forecast errors are dominated by rare events, and we are limited in our ability to track them.
Figure 3 The graph shows the daily variations a derivatives portfolio exposed.K.
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